The big threat is that Ukraine now is signaling a series of major attacks on Crimea. Note that Crimea is actually not really a military target. Yes, there are military bases there, but they do not really constitute the ‘rear’ of the SMO as real brigade level ‘rears’ are all at the deep end of Zaporozhye. For instance, not only major forward supply areas/depots like the one blown up recently in Rykove, near Melitopol, but even as an example the big rotary wing airfield in Berdiansk I recently wrote about. All of these are strategic forward deployed areas which are not in Crimea. The point being that any attacks on Crimea would really be more psychological in nature, akin to attacking Belgorod or Moscow region, rather than the actions of a military power actually trying to win a war militarily.
So, in light of these developments, Shoigu has issued a statement that such long-range strikes on Crimea would constitute involvement of the US/UK and would result in immediate strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers
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